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Alibaba IPO: 3 Potential Ripple Effects on Stocks

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The butterfly effect is operational in the stock market and investment world although it might be called by different names and terms. Irrespective of whether you call it the butterfly effect, the ripple effect, or cause-action effect, the fact remains that there isn’t such a thing as coincidence in the stock market. One thing invariably leads to another and investors need to be on the lookout for the potential butterfly effects on the horizon.

A Long-Awaited IPO

In February, I wrote a post titled “2014: Year of Headline-Grabbing IPOs” in which I mentioned the buzz about Alibaba’s IPO. Alibaba is the largest internet company in China and it operates the largest internet market in the world. Yahoo has a 24% stake in Alibaba and the eyes of tech world are fixed on how Alibaba’s IPO works out.

The rumor is now substantiated as Alibaba filed for an IPO earlier this week and it was reported that Alibaba Group has filed for a nominal $ 1 billion initial public offering. Alibaba’s IPO has the potential to cause a ripple effect in the market because of the perceived size of its valuation. The consensus analysts valuation pegs Alibaba’s valuation somewhere above $100 billion and a $150 billion valuation point will not be perceived as reckless.

Ripple Effect #1: Reward for Early Backers

One of the potential ripple effects in Alibaba IPO is that the IPO could reward early backers significantly. Early backers of Alibaba such as Yahoo have been recording positive buzz and it stands to gain more after the IPO. Jack Ma, Lead Founder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba will also move up from his number 8 position on China’s rich list because of his 7% stake in Alibaba. Hence, it is evident that some people stand the make significant gains with the Alibaba IPO.

Ripple Effect #2: A Potential Selloff in Growth Stocks

The second ripple effect is that Alibaba IPO could cause a selloff in low momentum growth stocks. Alibaba is widely profitable and investors will be lining up to buy its stock. However, investors cannot pull cash out of thin air to invest in Alibaba and so they have to pull out of some low growth investments and put their money where it has a better chance of yielding an increased ROI.

Hence, we can expect to see a selloff in the stocks of companies such asFacebookTwitter, and Netflix among others when investors move to the next big thing. Alibaba’s $150 billion valuation is practically equal to the combined loss in market cap of tech stocks such as Facebook , Twitter and Netflix that have been trading down over the last couple of days.

Ripple Effect #3: Tech Stocks Might be Burned

The third ripple effect is that things could get very messy after Alibaba IPO. You will have an idea of what I mean if you remember the debacle that followed Facebook’s botched IPO. I am not comparing Alibaba IPO to the botched Facebook IPO and I am not predicting that Alibaba will mess up just like Facebook did. What I am saying is that the market could be in a precarious position if (and only if) the Alibaba IPO did not go as expected.

For one, Yahoo is bound by agreement to sell some 40% of its 22.6% stake in Alibaba after the IPO. Even though, it is still early to estimate how much that 40% will be worth when Yahoo sells, we can project that it adds a significant boost to Yahoo’s current $34.29 billion market cap. However, the issue is not Yahoo’s sale of its stake but the timing of that sale. More so, a Reuter’s piece via Yahoo Finance piece details some red flags that might cause the Alibaba flight to experience turbulence after its IPO.

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Goldman Sachs CEO Thinks Markets Are Too High

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Original Link | Motley Fool

Analysts and commentators are often derided for saying that stocks are overpriced and due for a correction. Behavioral economics, the fad at the moment, holds that making predictions is like throwing darts at a dartboard with a blindfold on.

But what happens when a growing chorus of the best investors in the world all start to say exactly that? Should these people also be treated like Greek mythology’s Cassandra, who could see the future but couldn’t persuade others about her predictions?

The latest example is the chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Lloyd Blankfein. At an industry conference this week, Blankfein expressed concern about the current state of the markets, saying that the situation “unnerves” him.

“Things have been going up for too long,” he said. “When yields on corporate bonds are lower than dividends on stocks? That unnerves me.”

The head of Goldman Sachs, which has been among the most omniscient of trading firms on Wall Street in recent history, adds his name to a growing list of other high-profile financiers that have publicly expressed concern.

Here’s what Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Group (NYSE:OAK), wrote in a memo to clients in July:

[I]t’s essential to take note when sentiment (and thus market behavior) crosses into too-bullish territory, even though we know rising trends may well roll on for some time, and thus that such warnings are often premature. I think it’s better to turn cautious too soon (and thus perhaps underperform for a while) rather than too late, after the downslide has begun, making it hard to trim risk, achieve exits, and cut losses.

Since I’m convinced “they” are at it again — engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals, and creating risky market conditions — it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Here’s Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, a fund with $110 billion in assets under management:

If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price. This is not the time period where you say, “I can buy anything and not worry about the risk of it.” The time to do that was 18 months ago.

Here’s Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A)(NYSE:BRK-B), intimating the same thing in a letter he penned earlier this year to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway:

Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do.

And here’s Ray Dailo, the co-founder and chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, writing recently in a LinkedIn post:

When it comes to assessing political matters (especially global geopolitics like the North Korea matter), we are very humble. We know that we don’t have a unique insight that we’d choose to bet on. Most importantly, we aim to stay liquid, stay diversified, and not be overly exposed to any particular economic outcomes. We like to hedge our bets, though we are never completely hedged. We can also say that if the above things go badly, it would seem that gold (more than other safe haven assets like the dollar, yen, and Treasuries) would benefit, so if you don’t have 5%-10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this. Don’t let traditional biases, rather than an excellent analysis, stand in the way of you doing this (and if you do have an excellent analysis of why you shouldn’t have such an allocation to gold, we’d appreciate you sharing it with us).

In short, one can be as dogmatic as one likes about predictions, but when investors and financiers like these start expressing concern, it’s probably not such a bad thing to listen.

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4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market”

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– 4 reasons why “gold has entered a new bull market” – Schroders
– Market complacency is key to gold bull market say Schroders
– Investors are currently pricing in the most benign risk environment in history as seen in the VIX
– History shows gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness (see chart)
– You should buy insurance when insurers don’t believe that the “risk event” will happen
– Very high Chinese gold demand, negative global interest rates and a weak dollar should push gold higher

This week gold broke through the key resistance of $1,300. For some time market commentators have been signalling this level as the point of entry for a new bull market.

Often price can be distracting when it comes to trying to figure out what is going on. Two Schroders fund managers called the new bull market in gold about a week before the price broke through the key level.

Gold has entered into a new bull market. As we have discussed previously, there are four main reasons for our stance:

  1. Global interest rates need to stay negative
  2. Broad equity valuations are extremely high and complacency stalks financial markets
  3. The dollar might be entering a bear market
  4. Chinese demand for gold has the potential to surge (indeed, investment demand in China for bar and coin already increased over 30% in the first quarter of 2017, according to the World Gold Council)

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Alphabet Is Getting Squeezed, but a Breakout Is Coming: Chart

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Alphabet (GOOGL) shares have successfully retested a nearly four-month support line and are prepared to make a volatile move higher. This is just one of a number of technology stocks that have recently retested support lines, and have the potential to return to previous pattern resistance levels or to new highs.

Alphabet should be a leading indicator for the space. It is positioned on a well-tested support level and undergoing a volatility squeeze. The level of buying interest this move attracts should be a gauge on the general sector.

There are several ways to identify a potential volatility squeeze in a stock. One indication is when the upper and lower Bollinger bands move inside the Keltner channel boundaries. Bollinger bands are measures of standard deviation around a moving average. Keltner Channels are a measure of standard deviation using average true range.

It is unusual for the Bollinger Bands to contract to a point where they enter the Keltner channel and this reflects a level of extremely low volatility. Periods of low volatility are often resolved by periods of high volatility, and in the case of Alphabet, the resolution should be higher.

Google is a holding in Jim Cramer’s Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio.Want to be alerted before Cramer buys or sells GOOGL? Learn more now.

Moving average convergence/divergence has made a bullish crossover and the stochastic oscillator has crossed above its center line. These indicators reflect positive short-term price momentum and potential trend direction. The stock has broken above short-term resistance in the $945 area, and is retesting its upper Bollinger band.

It appears the breakout is underway and the first upside price objective is to fill the July downside gap by returning to the resistance level of a large horizontal channel.

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