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US Dollar Reaching Exhaustion Point?

The dollar has shown some extended price action over the last several weeks and many forex traders and ETF investors are wondering whether these moves can continue.

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The dollar has shown some extended price action over the last several weeks and many forex traders and ETF investors are wondering whether these moves can continue.

There is some degree of flexibility here in terms of where markets are likely headed into the final parts of the summer. But at this stage it is relatively clear that the Federal Reserve is ready to continue raising interest rates, and this is something that could bring the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) up from its prior lows.

Forex traders looking to establish positions in instruments like the euro, the Japanese yen or the British pound will need to remain watchful of the Fed in its next round of policy commentaries. This will be the best way of assessing how concerned it is about the inflation picture and whether we will actually see two additional rate hikes at separate meetings before the end of this year.

Currently, there is still speculation both ways about whether the U.S. economy can withstand further rate increases this year. If not, we can expect lower valuations in assets that are tied to the value of the greenback. The downtrend in the PowerShares ETF has been orderly in ways that are sustainable. Activity in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) will give us a better understanding of what is happening in Asian currencies, and we have already seen some interesting moves in the Chinese yuan renminbi and Malaysian currencies already this year.

Screenshot 2017-07-09 at 5.27.25 PM.png[ Enlarge Image ]

But the fact that we have now seen a five-wave bearish series suggests that the extent of the downtrend might have run its course. This type of analysis lies in conjunction with the Elliot Wave theory, but the underlying trends here have been largely validated by the economic data as well. We have seen strong performances in manufacturing productivity and national jobs data in the U.S. and this is something that could make it easier for the Fed to act in a hawkish fashion again before the end of this year.

Alternatively, forex investors can view the CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) in terms of the ways it suggests broader strength or weakness in the peripheral majors. Forex ETFs generally pose the chosen currency against a basket of currencies, so if we are seeing rallies in CurrencyShares while we are seeing declines in PowerShares, it would suggest the need for sell positions in forex pairs like euro/dollar. Continue to watch for bounces off support at 1.1280 as this was previously an area that acted as resistance and COT reporting data already suggest that we are seeing a cluster of stop loss activity developing in this area.

Photo: Tracy O via photopin cc

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Trump Says He Will Make A “Major Statement” When He Returns To The US

After a 12-day tour through five Asian countries where he discussed the threat posed by North Korea and how America might shrink its massive trade deficits, President Donald Trump is heading back to the US Tuesday. And in true Trump fashion, the president hinted that he would be making a “major announcement” upon his return to the states – but offered no clues about what the topic of said “announcement” might be.

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After a 12-day tour through five Asian countries where he discussed the threat posed by North Korea and how America might shrink its massive trade deficits, President Donald Trump is heading back to the US Tuesday. And in true Trump fashion, the president hinted that he would be making a “major announcement” upon his return to the states – but offered no clues about what the topic of said “announcement” might be.

Here’s the tweet, sent around 1 a.m. Eastern Time:

Of course, there’s a lot happening in Washington right now, and Trump’s hinted-at announcement could be in reference to one of any number of issues. Will he deliver an update on the administration’s position regarding tax reform as two bills that differ in dramatic fashion wend through Congress? Perhaps some type of security announcement? Or the revelation that the US has finally entered into talks with North Korea after Trump adopted a notably softer tone toward his favorite Asian antagonist over the weekend?

There’s also the possibility that he could deliver an official statement about Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, who Trump previously said should “do the right thing” and step aside if allegations about him having inappropriate sexual contact with a 14-year-old girl turn out to be true?

Shortly before his teaser tweet about the upcoming announcement, the president hinted that he had made some major breakthroughs on behalf of the US’s trading relationship in the region, claiming that the US’s regional partners now understand that trade deficits “most come down”?

The president also took the time to thank the staff of the US embassy in the Phillipines for doing such “GREAT WORK” during his visit. Strangely, similar praise for other US embassies in the region was not forthcoming.

He also took a swing at polls that reflect a presidential approval rating below 40%, pointing to a Rassmussen poll that puts his approval rating at a reasonable 46%…

With the House gearing up to pass its version of the tax reform program on either Thursday or Friday, it’s possible Trump could be taking to the bully pulpit to try and whip up votes among intransigent blue-state Republicans. Or the announcement could be on any one of a number of topics. North Korea, trade, tax reform, the upcoming Alabama special election – all are priorities for the White House and the Republican Party right now.

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The Price Swings In Bitcoin Are Making Me Sick To My Stomach

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Well, that de-escalated quickly…

All the hopes and dreams of Bitcoin Cash officianados have been dashed in the last 24 hours. After its mega spike from $600 to over $2400, the forked cryptocurrency has crashed back to around $1000 overnight as traders switch back to the mainstream Bitcoin branch, sending it surging back above $6600 – erasing all the weekend’s “the end is nigh” losses…

As CoinTelegraph reports, cross-exchange data for Bitcoin Cash, which describes itself as “the best money in the world,” shows a swift turnaround in the altcoin’s fortunes through the weekend.

The result of a giant publicity effort from its proponents, BCH saw mass investment as it heads towards a potentially contentious hard fork set for just after 7 p.m. GMT today.

The failure of SegWit2x, coupled with endorsement from the soon-to-be-defunct Bitcoin Classic team meant BCH became the major ‘competitor’ to Bitcoin overnight.

Its rapid rise has ignited the community, with widespread condemnation of lead supporters Roger Ver and Jihan Wu coming in tandem with public praise from Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin.

As BCH approached its highest-ever point Nov. 11, Buterin delivered his “congratulations” to Ver on Twitter, adding it was a “key reason why he is now so confident in crypto.”

Criticism meanwhile has focused on the ‘corporatized’ nature of BCH in contrast to Bitcoin’s decentralization, while figures involved insist the altcoin is an improvement on Bitcoin.

The project even has a CEO in the form of Finnish Pirate Party founder Rick Falkvinge, who released a statement aimed at harmonizing its structure.

“…As Chief Executive Officer of this disorganization with made-up titles, where every document is as official as people pretend it to be, I further emphasize that we cannot resolve social disputes by voting, for two reasons: first, there is no boundary on the electorate that determines who gets to vote, which creates winning by trickery rather than by argument, and second, we don’t want to vote anyway.”

But that is all over for now…

As Bitcoin soars back above $6600…

Leaving Bitcoin Cash about half the market cap of Ethereum once again…

So what happens next?

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7 Quotes That Sum Up Buffett’s Entire Strategy

Unlike other highly successful value investors, Buffett spends a large amount of time doing interviews. There have also been thousands of articles written about him and possibly hundreds of books.

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Warren Buffett is the world’s greatest and most prominent value investor.  Unlike other highly successful value investors, Buffett spends a large amount of time doing interviews. There have also been thousands of articles written about him and possibly hundreds of books.

Not only is Buffett the world’s most successful investor, he is also the investing world’s biggest celebrity. In some ways, this success has been a doubled-edged sword.

Since Buffett is a larger-than-life celebrity, his interviews stray away from the topic of investing. At the same time, he has produced so many sound bites on the topic of investing, many have lost their true meaning. For instance, almost all investors know Buffett’s first two rules — “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.” More often than not, however, I have seen this interpreted as “If I don’t sell, I don’t lose money” — clearly not the right viewpoint at all.

So considering all of the above, in this article I have tried to pull together seven quotes I believe best describe Buffett’s investment process and give essential insight into how the average investor should look for value and high-quality investments. These are not one-liners, they are specifically picked to give as much detail as possible.

How to pick the best businesses:

“I like businesses I can understand. We’ll start with that. That narrows it down about 90%. There are all kinds of things I don’t understand, but fortunately, there’s enough I do understand. You got this big, wide world out there. Almost every company is publicly owned. You got all American business, practically, available to you. Now, to start with, it doesn’t make sense to go with things you think you can[‘t] understand. But you can understand some things. I can understand this (picks up can of Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)). I mean you can understand this. Anybody can understand this. I mean this is a product that basically hasn’t been changed much since 1886, and it’s a simple business. It’s not an easy business. I don’t want a business that’s easy for competitors. I want a business with a moat around it with a very valuable castle in the middle. And then I want the duke who’s in charge of that castle to be honest and hard-working and able. And then I want a big moat around the castle, and that moat can be various things.

The moat in a business like our auto insurance business at GEICO is low cost. I mean people have to buy auto insurance so everybody’s going to have one auto insurance policy per car, basically, or per driver. And I can’t sell them 20, but they have to buy one. What are they going to buy it on? They’re going to buy it based on service and cost. Most people will assume the service is fairly identical among companies, or close enough, so they’re going to do it on cost, so I gotta be the low-cost producer. That’s my moat. To the extent my costs get further lower than the other guy, I’ve thrown a couple of sharks into the moat.”

 



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