Timing Is Everything

CNBC never cease to amaze me the way they always trot out mostly bearish commentators on day’s when the market is declining severely, like Monday’s 1.83% plunge, but the bull’s when the market makes a stunning advance like the 1.27% rise a few days later.

Read more »

Echo of the 1987 Crash

By Stock Chartist (Original Link)

It was twenty-five years ago but it still seems like it was only yesterday.  I didn’t have much money in the market during the ’87 Crash but it was all the money I had saved.  …

Read more »

That Old 1978-82 Analog Again

A post on Ritholtz’s Big Picture blog reflected a conclusion I recently reluctantly needed to begin facing.  Regular readers know that for over two years I have been tracking the path of the S&P 500 Index in what I call “Reversion to the Mean” (last mentioned here on November 4).  Briefly, the hypothesis was that the S&P has been growing since 1938 at an average annual rate of 7.5% and that it’s volatility around that growth rate was contained in […]

Read more »

That Old 1978-82 Analog Again

A post on Ritholtz’s Big Picture blog reflected a conclusion I recently reluctantly needed to begin facing.  Regular readers know that for over two years I have been tracking the path of the S&P 500 Index in what I call “Reversion to the Mean”.

Read more »

VTR and REITs: Awaiting Resolution of “Great Convergence”

As discussed in the previous post, the market is at a crucial juncture, something I have labelled “The Great Convergence”.  The confluence of risk and opportunity is seldom as obvious as it is today.  Many of the risks still hang over our heads (need I mention Europe sovereign debt, U.S. election season, renewed U.S. budget debates, housing market still on its back, another round of debate about healthcare, etc.) yet each, through the prospect of their ultimate resolution, presents impetus […]

Read more »

VTR and REITs: Awaiting Resolution of “Great Convergence”

As discussed in the previous post, the market is at a crucial juncture, something I have labelled “The Great Convergence”.  The confluence of risk and opportunity is seldom as obvious as it is today.

Read more »

“The Great Convergence”

After today’s close and after closing higher for 20 of the last 23 trading days, the market is now up 10.01% since December 19.  Even more important is to note that today’s close was at 1326.06, almost exactly the level many chartists have touted as the breakout point that confirms an exit from this summer’s bear market and the continuation of last year’s bull market run off the lows. It should also be noted that it’s almost exactly where the […]

Read more »

“The Great Convergence”

After today’s close and after closing higher for 20 of the last 23 trading days, the market is now up 10.01% since December 19.  Even more important is to note that today’s close was at 1326.06,

Read more »

Revisiting Housing and Banking With a New Ending

There was much conversation today about how the housing and banking industry was leading the market higher ….. which reminded me of a post I made close to a year ago on May 11, 2011 entitled “Homebuilders and Financials: The Economy’s and Market’s Missing Wheel“.  The S&P 500 closed at 1342.08 that day, 2.06% above today’s close of 1314.50.  I concluded that piece by saying Two Industry Groups stand in the way of further market advances: financials and homebuilders. Home […]

Read more »

Revisiting Housing and Banking With a New Ending

There was much conversation today about how the housing and banking industry was leading the market higher ….. which reminded me of a post I made close to a year ago on May 11, 2011 entitled “Homebuilders and Financials: The Economy’s and Market’s Missing Wheel“.

Read more »