September 4, 2026
Bonus Content: Gold Is Back at $4,490. The Yields That Decide Next.
Dear Reader,
They declared a ceasefire!
Until they didn’t.
Then Trump said we were about to sign a deal.
Until we started shooting at each other again.
According to one source, Trump has said an Iran deal is “close” 38 times since the war began.
In the time between writing this message and you reading it, who knows whether we’ll be hearing about an imminent deal… or more bombing.
And it doesn’t matter.
This is all a distraction.
Here’s the REAL reason why Trump may NEVER end this war.
To your future,
Addison Wiggin
Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
Gold Is Back at $4,490. The Yields That Decide Next.
Gold does not reverse $157 in a session without a clear catalyst. Thursday’s catalyst was the 10-year Treasury yield.
The 10-year yield fell to about 4.79% on Wednesday, pausing after a five-session rally that had pushed it above 4.81%, its highest level since late 2023. That pause was enough. As of 9:05 a.m. Eastern Time Thursday, gold was priced at $4,491 per ounce, a $157 rise from the same hour Wednesday. Gold’s spot price at 9:00 a.m. ET was $4,489.80 per ounce.
The mechanics here matter for traders. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he would be inclined to leave interest rates unchanged if next week’s inflation report shows inflation continues to cool, and the bond market rally trimmed yields across maturities by a few basis points. The two-year yield, which touched 4.40% this week, declined to roughly the low 4.30% area. Gold, which had been sold aggressively as hike odds climbed, snapped back in direct proportion.
The geopolitical overlay added a second layer. President Trump said the U.S. carried out a “very heavy attack” against Iran and said the renewed U.S. campaign against Iran would not continue for “too long,” and traders took that as a signal that the latest military escalation would be short-lived. While that sentiment lifted gold, Brent crude traded back above $97 a barrel as the conflict kept traders focused on supply risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Oil above $97 is not a benign inflation backdrop, and that tension has not resolved.
The Levels That Matter
Markets now price in roughly a two-thirds chance of a September Fed hike, per the CME FedWatch Tool. That probability is the single most important variable for gold between now and the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. The key data arrives Friday, September 11, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August CPI figures.
Here is how to frame the yield-to-gold trade. The 10-year spent the past week between roughly 4.74% and 4.81%. Gold’s collapse last Tuesday came as yields pressed toward the top of that range and hike odds approached the high-60% to around-70% area. Today’s bounce arrived when Waller’s comments pulled yields back. A soft CPI and easing Middle East tensions could fuel a rally toward new highs, while a hot inflation reading combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger another selloff and push gold back below $4,000. GLD and GDX traders should treat 4.80% on the 10-year as the line where the bull case starts to deteriorate again.
Silver and the Central Bank Signal
Silver December futures opened at $66.17 per ounce Thursday, up 1.1% from Wednesday’s close. Compared with this time last year, silver is roughly 60% higher. SLV continues to track gold’s directional moves but with wider swings. For now it confirms rather than leads.
The more consequential signal arrived Wednesday from Amsterdam. The Dutch central bank said it had moved 86 tonnes of its gold reserves out of the United States and Canada to London, citing increasing geopolitical unrest and “crisis preparedness.” De Nederlandsche Bank completed the transfers between March and August 2026 without changing overall holdings, which it said were valued at €72.2 billion at the end of 2025. DNB said gold stored with the Bank of England is more readily tradable, and the move follows France’s earlier move to replace 129 tonnes of gold held in New York by selling it there and buying an equivalent amount in Europe. Central banks are not trading gold. They are repositioning it toward the most liquid market on the planet, which is itself a form of conviction.
Trader’s Action Plan
The trade is yield-dependent, not just directionally bullish. Watch Friday’s August jobs report for the first read on whether Waller’s pause-friendly tone holds. A weak number below 100,000 new payrolls would compress hike odds further and give gold room above $4,500. A strong report reverses that quickly. Then September 11’s CPI is the decision point. Markets price in roughly a two-thirds chance of a September hike currently. If that number drops toward 40%, the gold trade has room. If it climbs toward 80%, the 10-year breaks above 4.81% and gold retests last week’s lows. Keep position sizing honest ahead of that release.
