October 25, 2026
Bonus Content: Brent Crude Closed at $116.72. Iran Escalated Again.
Dear Investor,
I want to ask you a strange question.
What happens when the public turns against the products of a giant industry… but the world still needs the job those products perform?
That is not a theoretical question.
We have watched versions of this story before. For years, tobacco appeared untouchable. It was profitable, familiar and woven into everyday American life.
Then the pressure started building.
Scientific concern. Public scrutiny. Lawsuits. Regulation. A slow but unmistakable change in what consumers would accept.
Tobacco demand could fall because people could stop smoking.
But people cannot simply stop controlling mosquitoes, termites, roaches, ticks and the pests that threaten homes, businesses, food and public health.
That is what makes today’s pesticide story so interesting.
If traditional chemical products face mounting pressure, the need does not go away. The money does not necessarily disappear. It may begin moving toward a different kind of solution.
And quietly – well outside the spotlight of most Wall Street research – one small private company has spent years developing botanical pest-control products designed for this changing market.
That company is Med-X, Inc. It has reserved MXRX for possible use following a successful future Nasdaq listing.
I am not asking you to buy a stock. I am asking you to examine a question before the answer becomes obvious to everyone else:
If pesticides are entering their “tobacco moment,” where could the demand go next?
We prepared a detailed report that follows the entire story – from the historical comparison, to the unavoidable demand for pest control, to the botanical category and the company attempting to build inside it.
The report is long. Deliberately so. It gives you the argument, the counterarguments and the facts you should investigate for yourself.
Click here now to read “Are Pesticides the New Tobacco?”
You may agree with the comparison. You may reject it. Either way, this is a market transition worth understanding.
Sincerely,
The Editors
National Investor Network
P.S. The most consequential changes often look gradual – until suddenly they do not. Read the full investor letter here and decide for yourself whether pest control is approaching one of those moments.
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Brent Crude Closed at $116.72. Iran Escalated Again.
Brent crude settled Friday at $116.72 and opened Monday near $113 before climbing back above $117 as the weekend brought a cascade of new threats. The question for traders is not whether the news is bad. It is whether the market has already paid for most of it.
The escalation since Friday’s close was real and concentrated. Two senior Iranian officials, including a member of the IRGC, confirmed to the New York Times that Tehran is preparing to target US diplomats and personnel, calling Americans “fair game” in response to the killing of Iranian officials. US national intelligence chief Jay Clayton had already warned in a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target Americans in the Middle East and beyond. Non-essential diplomatic staff have been ordered to leave US missions in Saudi Arabia.
Iran warned on Saturday that US ships would never be allowed in the Persian Gulf “under any circumstances,” as tensions between Tehran and Washington continue mounting. On the Saudi front, the Saudi-led coalition destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis towards Taif and Yanbu on Saturday. And in Israel, with Israelis voting on October 27, Netanyahu is placing the removal of Iran’s leadership at the forefront of his campaign message. Netanyahu said Iran posed an “existential threat” and that Trump had said he was “ready to finish the job,” following US military preparations for possible additional strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
Where the Premium Lives
Here is the problem with chasing Brent higher on Monday morning: supply is not actually broken. Kpler data shows Middle East oil exports have exceeded pre-war levels despite resurgent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with total flows averaging more than 24 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, above the pre-war level of about 23.3 million bpd. Physical supply is above prewar levels, but insurance and freight costs have soared. That gap between physical reality and price reflects fear, not shortage.
The conflict has pushed Brent up sharply this year. Brent traded near $72 a barrel in February as the risk of a conflict in the Middle East rose, and it has traded as high as $126 during the spring surge. At $117, Brent is sitting near the top of its one-year range. The market is not ignoring risk. It has been pricing it for months.
The Trade, Not the Headline
This is a two-sided setup. On the upside, a confirmed US strike on Iran or a credible Hormuz closure could push Brent toward the April $126 high or beyond. Iran threatened to attack oil facilities, undersea cables, and data centers across the Gulf if the US and Israel launched a new offensive. That scenario is not priced. What is priced is elevated tension short of direct re-engagement.
On the downside, Brent opened Monday roughly $3.50 below Friday’s settlement. The day’s open was $113.09 against a previous close of $116.72. Traders who bought the Friday close into the news spike are already underwater. Chasers of Sunday night headlines have a thin margin for error.
XLE closed at $69.33 on Friday and made a new high, as the energy sector ETF climbed with Brent amid escalating Iran conflict fears. The year-to-date gain depends on the calculation method, but widely followed fund reporting put it around +40% as of Friday’s close. At that level, the ETF is effectively a bet on continued elevated oil prices. A reversal toward diplomacy, or any credible ceasefire signal ahead of the November 3 US midterms, could give back gains quickly.
Frontline (FRO) is the cleaner asymmetric angle. Iran’s push to impose transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has reshaped key shipping routes, and Frontline is at the center of that shift after reporting results tied to longer tanker journeys. Frontline’s first-quarter 2026 revenue rose to about $929 million from about $428 million a year earlier, more than doubling year over year. The stock trades near $51-52, well below its 52-week high of $59.75, even as day rates remain elevated. It captures the freight-cost spike without requiring a full supply disruption to work.
What to Watch
The Israeli election on October 27 is the nearest catalyst. A Netanyahu victory raises the probability of coordinated US-Israel strikes after November 3. A loss reduces it, at least in the short term. Beyond that, any statement from the Trump administration confirming or denying a post-midterm strike authorization will move Brent by several dollars in either direction.
The risk dashboard for Monday is not that the news is bullish. It is that most of the bullish news arrived over the weekend into a market already at multi-month highs. Trump has repeatedly hinted that forces in the Mideast would resume strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, and US officials have publicly signaled preparations. That positioning is known. Trade the levels, not the headlines. Define risk before Friday’s close becomes a trap.
