This Company Just Had Its Best Year Ever

As of Saturday morning, every Federal Reserve official went silent. The September 2026 FOMC meeting takes place on September 15 and 16, with the rate decision due on September 16. The standard pre-meeting quiet period is now in effect, and no policymaker can speak again before the vote. That leaves traders with exactly one major input left: the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI data for August 2026 on Friday, September 11, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, providing a critical inflation reading as the Fed weighs its next rate decision just five days later.

The stakes are genuine. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, well ahead of forecasts around the low-50,000s, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. August’s job gains were the strongest since March, marking a sharp rebound from July’s tally, which was revised up to a 21,000-job gain from an initially reported 23,000-job loss. The blowout forced a swift shift across fixed income. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.37% and the 10-year yield was around 4.78% to 4.79%.

Rate-hike expectations moved with it. After the jobs report, futures markets were leaning toward a September quarter-point hike, with some gauges around a 60% probability. That is a meaningful tilt for a committee that has looked split. With no one allowed to say a word publicly until after the September 16 decision, Friday’s CPI carries the full burden of the argument.

The July reading offers a baseline. In July, the CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.4% over the last 12 months. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over the year. Still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Core services excluding shelter, often called “supercore,” is widely tracked as a proxy for demand-driven inflation. Any meaningful deceleration in this component would be a strong signal that underlying inflation is genuinely cooling.

The Two-Scenario Trading Plan

Hot print (month-over-month above 0.3%): Hike odds push higher. TLT, which tracks long-dated Treasuries and has already been under pressure with the 10-year near 4.79%, faces renewed selling. SPY likely gaps lower at the open, with rate-sensitive sectors taking the first hit. Gold gave back ground after the jobs report as stronger-than-expected payrolls lifted Treasury yields and the dollar and rekindled hike bets, with spot gold trading around $4,420. A hot CPI accelerates that move. GLD support sits near its early-September lows; a break opens the path back toward $4,282, the low touched just before Waller’s dovish comments last week.

Cool print (month-over-month at 0.1% or below): Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to keep rates unchanged if price pressures continue to ease, and when he signaled as much last week, traders moved to price roughly a 50% probability of a September hike, down from about 63% the day before. A soft CPI revives that dynamic. TLT catches a bid, SPY bounces on relief, and GLD has room to push back toward the $4,500 area it held before the payrolls shock.

What to Watch Beyond the Headline

Shelter costs deserve particular attention. Shelter, primarily owners’ equivalent rent, is the single largest CPI component. Any meaningful softening there changes the calculus for doves even if the headline reads warm. Watch the dollar index too: after the payrolls release, the dollar strengthened and gold fell sharply. A sustained dollar bid after a hot Friday print would amplify pressure on GLD and commodities broadly.

The committee is gagged. The data speaks Friday. Position accordingly before 8:25 a.m. Eastern.